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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the current field is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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